N. Korea not likely to launch provocation any sooner than March or April: U.S. defense analyst

북한, 한국의 새로운 대통령 당선 되기 전까지 도발 감행 안 할 것: 전문가 North Korea has set itself in more isolation than ever this year... launching the most number of provocations this year. Experts have repeatedly pointed to China as key to resolve North Korea's nulear ambitions... and that view is still echoed in Washington. Do we expect another provocation from Pyongyang in the near future... perhaps immediately following leadership changes in Seoul and Washington? Our News Feature tonight -- this piece by Connie Kim. The recently adopted UN Security Council resolution on North Korea aimed to give less wiggle room for the reclusive regime and make the North pay the price for defying the international community's condemnation and going ahead with its 5th nuclear test in September. But whether resolution 2321 will really have a pinching effect seems to depend solely on how China, North Korea's largest trading partner, will actively implement the sanctions,... says Robert Einhorn a former U.S. State Department's Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control. He recently met with North Korean officials in Geneva for informal talks known as Track 2. "I think an important step forward was the recent Security Council resolution 2321. That resolution that was worked out largely by the U.S. and China called for tax on the amount of coal that North Korea can export to China. It provides for something like 25-percent reduction in the revenues that North Korea can realize from exports, so that was an important step and it required China to be on board, but I still think China can do more." The key in the UN Security Council resolution is slashing North Korea's exports of coal by about sixty percent with an annual sales cap of four-hundred million U.S. dollars or seven-and-a half million metric tons,... which could pressure the North to give up its nuclear weapons program. But most North Korea watchers believe Pyongyang will not let go of its nukes given that it's the only negotiating tool with Washington. "I don't think that North Korea has yet the ability with any confidence to deliver a nuclear weapon against the American homeland. Clearly they are working on it. I believe as a matter of policy, they are committed to achieve the goal, but I think it will take them a few more years before they have that capability," So considering that scrapping off Pyongyang's nuclear weapons threat will not be possible any time soon, experts believe another provocation will come from the North. The question is when. And most say an important triggering point could be South Korea's presidential election. "If you think about it North Korea should fire lots of ballistic missiles like it did with its nuclear test. But then after September, October it stopped. Why? Well because of the havoc in South Korea politically. Why would North Korea want to look like a threat when the conservative president is being impeached and it looks like a progressive will be the next president. I think until the presidential election occurs which probably isn't any earlier than March or April, Kim Jong-un is going to be very well behaved." Another point to consider is the incoming Trump administration, as the unpredictable North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may want to seek big deals with the former U.S. business tycoon. "I think North Korea is waiting to see what the Trump administration will do. Hopefully they will be patient and refrain from any provocations because if they engage in such provocations, I think it will seriously affect the policies of the Trump administration, and not in the direction that North Korea will prefer." Inter-Korean relations have come to a complete halt and North Korea has become even more isolated this year. But the regime's unnerving silence as of now can be seen as the unpredictable leader most likely pondering on possible scenarios that focus on the new leaderships in South Korea and the U.S. next year, ... meaning that Kim Jong-un's next moves will surely set the tone of how Seoul and Washington will deal with the reclusive regime. Connie Kim, Arirang News. Visit ‘Arirang News’ Official Pages Facebook(NEWS):   / newsarirang   Homepage: http://www.arirang.com Facebook:   / arirangtv   Twitter:   / arirangworld   Instagram:   / arirangworld