Stephen Roach: Fears Of A China Slowdown Are Vastly Overblown

Please visit http://www.chinamoneypodcast.com for more great interviews! In this episode of China Money Podcast, our guest is Stephen Roach, current senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's chief economist. He spoke with our host, Nina Xiang, on the Fed's tapering of its quantitative easing programs and its impact on China; a potential U.S. default and what that means for China's over $3 trillion foreign reserves; and why he believes the fears of a China slowdown are vastly overblown. Listen to the full interview in the audio podcast, watch an abbreviated video version (coming soon) or read an excerpt below. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast in the iTunes store. Q: What impact will the U.S. Federal Reserve's reduction of its quantitative easing (QE) programs have on China? A: The policy experiment of the Fed is very risky. It's untested. It's unconventional. In my view, it's a big mistake. Initially, the policy grew out of a deep and legitimate concern of the U.S. and the world economy in crisis. Lacking a leeway in cutting interest rates, which were near zero, the Fed embarked on asset purchases, or liquidity injections. The Fed continued to do it even as the crisis ended and the economy attempted to recover. Last month, when the Fed surprised the market by backing off from QE, it found out that it might be difficult to get out from what could be a "policy trap" that it set itself. China would be adversely impacted if the global economy were dealt a blow by the Fed's policy withdrawal. Where China is exposed to any direct impact (from the U.S.) is if the U.S. were to default on its sovereign debt. China, with its $3.25 trillion foreign exchange reserves and the biggest share being U.S. dollar assets, could be hit very hard. ....... Stephen Roach is a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs. He was formerly chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's chief economist for the bulk of his 30-year career at Morgan Stanley. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, Roach served on the research staff at the Federal Reserve and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution.