Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam: ASEAN-6 Growth Leader

ASEAN-6 economic Growth Leader in the first 3 quarters in 2023 In the third quarter of 2023, the economies of most countries in Southeast Asia accelerated marginally in the face of rising inflation, global economic downturn, and country-specific factors. Among the major economies in the region, the Philippines is the growth leader growing by 5.9% in the 3rd quarter, followed by Vietnam expanding by 5.3%, Indonesia by 4.9%, Malaysia by 3.3%, Thailand by 1.5% and Singapore with minimal economic expansion of 0.7%. For the first 3 quarters of 2023, the Philippines is still the growth leader among the major economies in the region with an average growth of 5.5%, followed by Indonesia growing by 5.05% for the first 9 months this year, Vietnam with an average growth of 4.2%, comes next is Malaysia growing an average of 3.9%, Thailand expanding by 2% and Singapore by 0.53%. Mirroring the global downward trend in the third quarter of 2023, growth slowed in two of the six countries’ economies—Indonesia and Thailand—while GDP grew in the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore, from the second quarter to the third. Private consumption was the key driver of growth in most of these countries, especially in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, where their share in the economy ranges between 60 to 70 percent. Weakening global demand contracted exports across most of the region. Singapore is one of the most affected economies given its high dependence on exports at 187 percent of GDP, followed by Vietnam and Malaysia (at 94 percent and 74 percent of GDP respectively). The tourism sector, however, is accelerating as the number of foreign visitors to Southeast Asia continues to increase. This is particularly important for Thailand where tourism is one of their key sectors and, prior to the pandemic, contributed 20 percent to GDP in 2019. The fourth quarter performance will be a setting point if the emerging Asean markets can achieve their 2023 economic goals. Only Indonesia had reached its forecast in the first 3 quarters growing at an average rate of 5.05% compared to the 5% full-year economic outlook. The Philippines is required to expand by 7.4% in the 4th quarter to achieve its lowered end outlook of 6% for 2023. The Philippine government forecast its economy to grow by 6 to 7 percent this year. Likewise, Vietnam with an optimistic outlook at the beginning of the year, expecting to expand by 6.5% full year, is now requires a 13.4% GDP growth in the 4th quarter to offset lossy growth in the first 3 quarters. Malaysia's average growth rate in the first 9 months, also failed to reach its economic goals set at the beginning of the year of 4%, growing only by 3.9%. Malaysia’s economy is required to expand at least 4.2% to reach its 2023 full-year economic outlook. Thailand whose outlook lowered twice this year to 2.7%, is required to expand by 4.8% in the 4th quarter to reach its economic outlook. Singapore the worst performer in the region is required to expand by 2.4% in the fourth quarter to achieve its 1% full-year economic outlook for 2023. The economies in ASEAN are expected to see growth of 4.2 percent in 2023 and 4.6 percent in 2024, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points in 2023 and 0.3 percentage points in 2024, relative to our April World Economic Outlook. The downgrade reflects not only weaker growth outturns and external demand, but also more lackluster domestic demand because of waning revenge consumption and monetary policy tightening. Join this channel to get access to perks:    / @aseananalytics